Politics is very visible as the administration blames increases on those who "formed their attitudes about drug use and began to use them in the early 1990's," as though those kids didn't go through the DARE program, wern't blasted by "just say no" messages throughout their school years, and didn't see or hear any of the anti-drug messages from the Reagan and Bush asdministrations, which were, after all, substantially the same as Clinton's. Much of the press coverage on this is clearly based on government press releases rather than reporters actually studying the reports so the data is touted as indicating success. There is a wonderful article in INSIGHT magazine on these numbers you can find at http://www.insightmag.com/archive/200009186.shtml.

Annual Report Shows 2.3 Million Tried Marijuana For First Time In 1998

    Washington, DC: According to the 1999 National Household Survey on Drug
Abuse, an estimated 2.3 million people tried marijuana for the first time
during 1998, which amounts to about 6,400 new marijuana smokers a day.
    Among youth age 12 to 17, the perceived risk of marijuana use went down
from 30.8 percent in 1998 to 29.0 percent in 1999.
    The annual report also indicated that although the statistics were not
significant, marijuana use increased for adults ages 18-25 from 13.8
percent in 1998 to 16.4 percent in 1999 and that marijuana decreased for
youths aged 12-17 from 8.3 percent in 1998 to 7.0 percent in 1999

But the survey results among people 18 to 25 -- who are among those most
likely to commit crimes -- showed a worsening problem, at least recently. Use
of illicit drugs by that group rose 28 percent in two years; that is, 14.7
percent reported drug use in 1997, compared with 18.8 percent in 1999.

A statement issued with the findings predicted that those in the 18-to-25
group, "which includes many of those who formed their attitudes about drug
use and began to use them in the early 1990's," will continue to use drugs at
a relatively high rate as they age.

McCaffrey wrote, "This report demonstrates that the Strategy is working."

The dishonesty of General McCaffrey and his staff is breathtaking. On the most
important indicator, in terms of the degree of success that he claims in his
5-paragraph "Message from the Director," he has fudged the data.

Indeed, ten of the 97 measures of effectiveness in the 1999 document were based
on data for 12th graders and for all, in the year 2000 document, data for 8th
graders were substituted. More than 10% of the measures in the PME have been
manipulated without any notice of that fact in the year 2000 document
(preliminary report released to Congress in March, page 20).

ONDCP includes in its report a section called
"Progress at a Glance," two pages that color code each of its goals:
green for goals that are "on target" and red for those "off target."
It's here that the deception began. In the section describing
its media campaign, ONDCP listed its goal to "increase the percentage of
youth who perceive drug use as harmful" in green. This meant that it
was on target to increase the proportion of American youth who see
drug use as harmful to 80 percent by 2002. But was ONDCP really on
target?

In 1996 only 59.9 percent of 12th-graders - the group that
ONDCP used to measure youth perception - saw regular marijuana
use as harmful. By 1998, the proportion had fallen to 58.5 percent
and, by 1999 it was at 57.4 percent. For three consecutive years, risk

changes (which they did not point out in the report) in the way they calculated risk
perception. First, they changed a figure called the "base year," from
which they judged progress. The original base year was 1996; the new
one was 1998.

made the downward trend - one that might have jeopardized funding
for their program - look less severe. Second, since the most recent
data came from 1999, a 1998 base year left less room for long-term
comparison. Using a 1996 base year would show a trend for three
years: 1997, 1998 and 1999. But by starting in 1998, officials could
now report that, although there had been a decline, it had been only for
one year. But even this more modest decline never made it into the report.
That's because McCaffrey's officials made a second change: They
started to use eighth-grade data instead of the 12th-grade data.
Conveniently, eighth-graders typically see drug use as more risky than
12th-graders, hovering in the lower 70 percent range compared to the
upper 50 percent range for 12th-graders. By changing the data source,
officials found they could boast that they were less than 7 percent
from their 2002 goal, compared to the 23 percent shortfall with the
original 12th-grade data. ONDCP officials cooking the report to Congress now

from a University of Michigan study called "Monitoring the Future." The
numbers they reported from the study should have indicated 73.3
percent of eighth-graders saw regular marijuana use as harmful.
Officials tripled their improvement by reporting a higher number.

In McCaffrey's 1999 National Drug Control Strategy, in very large red letters,
almost 3/4 inch high across two pages, he declares, "National Anti-Drug Policy
is Working." One of his major claims in support of this statement is that
after 5 years of weakening in 12th grader attitudes about the riskiness of
marijuana use, there was a one-year turnaround measured in 1998. Another
important trend supporting his claim the "policy is working" is that Federal
anti-drug spending is increasing!

Yet the data in the appendix to the report notes that deaths from drugs have
doubled, that 8th grader use of cocaine, LSD, and marijuana had roughly tripled
over 5 years, that the prices of heroin and cocaine continued to fall while
purity increased. Clearly, the claim that the policy is working is propaganda.

"We have a long way to go," Dr. Shalala said, "miles to go in our journey to a

Hope you are enjoying your Tidbits. If you're not a member of ReconsiDer and would like to join please fill out our membership form. And be sure to visit our website.

Click here to unsubscribe to this mailing list.

ReconsiDer Tidbits